Purpose 

This report shares the results from a poll Zeeto ran on the 2020 Kentucky Senate race between incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) and his likely opponent Amy McGrath (D).

Methodology 

From May 5 to May 14, we surveyed 1,559 registered voters in Kentucky who expressed being likely to vote in the Senate race in November.

First we asked the following question: “How are you registered to vote in Kentucky?”

Answers:

• Republican
• Democrat
• Independent 
• Other 
• I am not registered to vote in Kentucky 

To control for position bias, we rotated the top four answers every time we ran the poll.  

Those who answered “I am not registered to vote in Kentucky” did not move on to the next question. 

Then we asked the following question: “Are you planning to vote in the Kentucky Senate race in November?” 

Answers: 

• Yes, I'm extremely likely to vote 
• Yes, I'm very likely to vote 
• Yes, I'm somewhat likely to vote 
• No, I'm unlikely to vote 

Those who answered “No, I’m unlikely to vote” or “Yes, I’m somewhat likely to vote” did not move on to the next question. 

Finally we asked the following question: “If the election were held today, whom would you vote for in a race between the following candidates?”

Answers: 

• Mitch McConnell (R) 
• Amy McGrath (D)
• I’m still not sure
• Neither candidate 

To control for position bias, we rotated all of the answers except the last one every time we ran the poll. 

As a last step, we weighted all responses on the basis of age and gender to ensure the sample data was representative of the targeted population.

Results 

Among likely voters with a preference, Mitch McConnell is ahead of likely Democratic challenger Amy McGrath by 10 percentage points: 55% would currently vote for McConnell compared to 45% for McGrath. 

Since the end of 2019, McConnell has increased his lead among likely voters with a preference by 2 percentage points. Then, 54% said they would have voted for McConnell compared to 46% for McGrath.

But with 6 months to go, the largest share of likely voters is still made up of the undecided, which is currently over 4 in 10 Kentuckians. Another 11% said they would currently vote for neither candidate.